I've spent the whole week trying to figure out if I like the Lions because they are better than the Tiger Cats, or because I'm a homer who can't look past a team that has some serious issues. I think it's probably a bit of both, but nevertheless, I am taking the Lions in the morning game. I am probably the only one. I was tired of waiting for the line to get to 4 points, so I just bought the extra half point for 10 cents. While I can't blame anyone for taking the Tiger Cats, here are the reasons why I think the Lions will win this game...
a) BC's Run Defence. They are the key to this game. Many people feel that they can't recover from the drubbing they have taken all years. However, look a bit closer. They have given up some monster games this year, but they have managed to bounce back each time they have been on the hot seat. They gave up 260 yards to Fred Reid, and followed it up by giving up 93 yards to Avon Cobourne (and only 12 points to the Alouettes). They gave up only 72 yards to the same Fred Reid the next time those two teams met.They gave up 167 yards to Cobb in Week 5, and followed that up by only giving up 38 yards to Wes Cates. They gave up 151 yards to Joffrey Reynolds and followed that up by only giving up 31 yards to Cates. The point is that this team is able to tighten up the run game when the pressure is on. The pressure is certainly on in Hamilton.
b) What helps this defence concentrate on the run is the fact that the secondary is so good. Prior to getting Kevin Glenn, the Tiger Cats would not be so hasty to abandon the run if it wasn't working. With Glenn at the helm, they are more prone to throwing the ball, which I think helps BC. Not only do they have some great cover men in Marsh, Phillips and Toney, but they have the best safety in the league in Baron Miles. This guy is a veteran who will be ready to play. If BC can make the 1st & 10 stops and force Glenn into passing situations, this benefits the defence. The same defence that led the league in sacks vs a Hamilton offensive line that allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league. You turn Johnson, Foley and Hunt loose and you will get problems.
c) Casey Printers > Kevin Glenn. Casey has been playing for his life since he was signed in BC. You think he doesn't know that his future probably hinges on a good game Sunday? Play well and he could turn one game into a decent payday for next season. Play well and prove to yourself that you weren't the reason the Tiger Cats blew, costing you a pay cheque for a year and a half. In addition to motivation, this guy is gaining more and more confidence as each game goes by. He knows how to run this offence. He can throw the deep ball, he can throw the short ball, he can run. Hamilton can do all they want to keep him in the pocket, but he has been dealing with teams trying to do this all season. I'll admit, I think Kevin Glenn is a pretty good QB. He has done everything his team could have asked for down the stretch. I just prefer Printers vs. Hamilton secondary over Glenn vs. BC secondary.
d) BC's short yardage team. BC has been absolutely terrible at short yardage this year. Honestly, it's probably a bigger problem than the run game, because they have lost several games and a lot of momentum on their inability to convert a 3rd & 1 situation. I don't think it's necessarily improved, but at least they have a bigger QB (Jackson) who will push the ball forward if needed. However, even he has had his problems, and I feel a lot better knowing that Buono will more often than not kick it away on 3rd & 1. This will allow the game to stay close. As much as 3rd & 1 should be a gimme in the CFL, it has really hurt the Lions this season.
British Columbia Lions +4 (-120)
GL
a) BC's Run Defence. They are the key to this game. Many people feel that they can't recover from the drubbing they have taken all years. However, look a bit closer. They have given up some monster games this year, but they have managed to bounce back each time they have been on the hot seat. They gave up 260 yards to Fred Reid, and followed it up by giving up 93 yards to Avon Cobourne (and only 12 points to the Alouettes). They gave up only 72 yards to the same Fred Reid the next time those two teams met.They gave up 167 yards to Cobb in Week 5, and followed that up by only giving up 38 yards to Wes Cates. They gave up 151 yards to Joffrey Reynolds and followed that up by only giving up 31 yards to Cates. The point is that this team is able to tighten up the run game when the pressure is on. The pressure is certainly on in Hamilton.
b) What helps this defence concentrate on the run is the fact that the secondary is so good. Prior to getting Kevin Glenn, the Tiger Cats would not be so hasty to abandon the run if it wasn't working. With Glenn at the helm, they are more prone to throwing the ball, which I think helps BC. Not only do they have some great cover men in Marsh, Phillips and Toney, but they have the best safety in the league in Baron Miles. This guy is a veteran who will be ready to play. If BC can make the 1st & 10 stops and force Glenn into passing situations, this benefits the defence. The same defence that led the league in sacks vs a Hamilton offensive line that allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league. You turn Johnson, Foley and Hunt loose and you will get problems.
c) Casey Printers > Kevin Glenn. Casey has been playing for his life since he was signed in BC. You think he doesn't know that his future probably hinges on a good game Sunday? Play well and he could turn one game into a decent payday for next season. Play well and prove to yourself that you weren't the reason the Tiger Cats blew, costing you a pay cheque for a year and a half. In addition to motivation, this guy is gaining more and more confidence as each game goes by. He knows how to run this offence. He can throw the deep ball, he can throw the short ball, he can run. Hamilton can do all they want to keep him in the pocket, but he has been dealing with teams trying to do this all season. I'll admit, I think Kevin Glenn is a pretty good QB. He has done everything his team could have asked for down the stretch. I just prefer Printers vs. Hamilton secondary over Glenn vs. BC secondary.
d) BC's short yardage team. BC has been absolutely terrible at short yardage this year. Honestly, it's probably a bigger problem than the run game, because they have lost several games and a lot of momentum on their inability to convert a 3rd & 1 situation. I don't think it's necessarily improved, but at least they have a bigger QB (Jackson) who will push the ball forward if needed. However, even he has had his problems, and I feel a lot better knowing that Buono will more often than not kick it away on 3rd & 1. This will allow the game to stay close. As much as 3rd & 1 should be a gimme in the CFL, it has really hurt the Lions this season.
British Columbia Lions +4 (-120)
GL
